Atlanta residential, March 2026

Rates and affordability

The thirty-year fixed averaged 6.38 percent for the week ending March 26, up 16 basis points on the week, with the fifteen-year at 5.75 percent (Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, March 26, 2026). Daily composites ran higher: 6.56 percent on March 30 (Bankrate) with daily trackers pushing toward 6.55 to 6.60 percent by March 27 (Mortgage News Daily). The ten-year Treasury reached 4.48 percent on March 28, the highest since mid-2025, as the Iran conflict's energy disruption raised inflation expectations faster than safe-haven demand could pull yields down (FRED; CNBC, March 28). The FOMC held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on March 18 with one dissent, trimmed its 2026 projection to one cut, and raised its PCE forecast to 2.7 percent; markets priced roughly even odds of a hike by December (Federal Reserve statement and projections, March 18, 2026). Purchase applications fell 5 percent for the week ending March 20 and refinance volume fell 15 percent (MBA Weekly Survey, March 25). Consumer sentiment finished March at 53.3 with year-ahead inflation expectations at 3.8 percent, the largest monthly jump since April 2025 (University of Michigan, March 27). The national affordability index stood at 117.6 for February, its best since March 2022, before the March rate move (the national association's February release).

Prices

National prices turned negative on the year for the first time since 2012: the February house price index was flat on the month and down 0.2 percent on the year, with annual appreciation under 1 percent for six consecutive months (First American Data and Analytics, February 2026 HPI, released March 18). The Atlanta metro Home Value Index stood at $376,108 for February, down 2.64 percent on the year and down for thirteen consecutive months; the top tier held better at $623,279, down 1.17 percent (Zillow Research, ZHVI CSVs downloaded March 17, 2026). County dispersion widened: DeKalb down 4.19 percent, Gwinnett down 3.37, Fulton down 3.12, Cobb down 2.79, Forsyth down 2.17, Cherokee down 1.04 (same source). Forsyth County's active listings were up 33 percent on the year at 1,283 with homes selling after 68 days against 50 a year earlier; Cherokee's days on market rose to 53 from 40 (Redfin county pages, March 2026). New listings entered the market priced $13,812 below the active-inventory median, a sign of sellers recalibrating (PathPost, March 2026 metro update). Negative equity reached 1.2 million homes nationally as of the third quarter of 2025, up 21 percent on the year (Cotality).

Inventory and supply

Metro active inventory stood at 27,771 in February, down 3.18 percent on the month and up 7.0 percent on the year; new listings were 5,483, up from January's seasonal low but down 7.04 percent on the year (Zillow Research CSVs, February 2026). Nationally, 914,860 homes were active at the end of February, up 8 percent on the year but still 17 percent below February 2019; 66 of the 200 largest markets and nine states had more inventory than before the pandemic (ResiClub, Lance Lambert, March 2026 state inventory update; lens credit for the pre-pandemic comparison). New-home supply ran near nine months against roughly four for existing homes, the widest gap in forty years (Census Bureau; the national association's February release). The relisting rate reached 24.4 percent in March against a typical 10 percent (PathPost, March 2026). Metro building permits fell 10 percent on the year through the third quarter of 2025 (HBWeekly).

Buyer and seller activity

National existing-home sales ran at a 4.09 million annual rate in February, up 1.7 percent on the month and down 1.4 percent on the year, with a $398,000 median (the national association's February release, March 10). Metro single-family average sale price was $557,650 in February, up 3.1 percent, closed sales up 1.5 percent on the year, but pending sales down 7.8 percent, the leading indicator (FMLS February statistics; re-cite to the FMLS report before publication). The list-to-sale ratio was 98.08 percent (same). Nationally, turnover fell to 2.8 percent, 28 of every 1,000 homes changing hands over the first nine months of 2025, the lowest in more than thirty years, with more than 70 percent of mortgaged owners holding rates under 5 percent (Redfin). A housing-demand index sat at 11 of 100 in mid-March (Reventure; lens credit) and searches for "can't sell house" reached an all-time high (Google Trends, March 2026). Builder incentives ran at five-year highs: more than 70 percent of builder originations carried a rate buydown, with named builders advertising 4.25 to 4.99 percent rates on select closings (builder announcements, March 2026).

What it meant for a practice

The spring season opened at materially worse affordability than anyone projected in January, and the lag between weekly surveys and daily rates cost a buyer two weeks of pricing truth. Sellers who listed in March were already pricing below the inventory around them, and one in four listings was a relisting; a practice that read those two numbers together saw the summer's concessions coming. The national decline headline and the Atlanta decline were the same story at different speeds, with the top tier and Cherokee County the slowest to fall.

Source block. Freddie Mac PMMS, 3/26/26 (public). Bankrate and Mortgage News Daily daily composites, 3/27 to 3/30/26 (press and published index). FRED MORTGAGE30US and Treasury series; CNBC 3/28/26. Federal Reserve FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections, 3/18/26 (public). MBA Weekly Applications Survey, 3/25/26 (public release). University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, March final, 3/27/26. FHFA conforming loan limit release. First American Data and Analytics HPI, February 2026, via Business Wire 3/18/26. Zillow Research CSVs downloaded 3/17/26 (terms: attribution to Zillow Research; confirm wording). Redfin county pages, March 2026 (terms: attribution and link). PathPost March 2026 market update (public brokerage commentary). Cotality negative-equity report, Q3 2025 (public release). ResiClub, March 2026 state inventory update and 66-markets note (lens credit, Lance Lambert). Census Bureau new-residential data. HBWeekly permit report, Q3 2025. The national association's February existing-home, pending, and affordability releases (public summaries). FMLS February statistics: RE-CITE to the FMLS report before publication. Reventure Housing Demand Index, March 2026 (lens credit). Google Trends, March 2026. Builder incentive announcements, March 2026 (public).

citation pending re-verification Figures drawn from a brokerage restatement of MLS data are re-cited to the MLS report before final publication.

Educational, not professional advice.