The Record
The Record
A retrospective archive in four categories: Atlanta Residential, the monthly reads from October 2024 through September 2026, continued monthly; The Cycle, where the macro cycle sits per Providentia, from frozen snapshots; Cycle Reads by Market, named markets mapped through the Providentia framework; and Foundations, reserved. Every page states its period or snapshot date and its true compilation date; nothing is backdated.
I. Atlanta Residential
The monthly reads: rates, prices, inventory, activity, and what each month meant for a practice. Newest six shown; the sub-index carries all twenty-four.
- September 2026Mortgage rates broke back above seven percent for the first time in roughly two years while the north metro's inventory build concentrated in a few submarkets, and sellers held price by conceding at closing rather than cutting at listing.
- August 2026The Fed chair's Jackson Hole speech flipped the base case from a cut to a possible September hike, national prices fell in real terms for a thirteenth month, new-home sales dropped a tenth in one month, and the corridor's million-dollar tier was the only segment with rising closings.
- July 2026Rates rose every week of the month to twelve-month highs with a September hike priced in, buyers kept applying anyway, and Atlanta became one of the few large markets still building inventory while leading the country in delistings and concessions.
- June 2026A hawkish first meeting for the new Fed chair met a falling oil price and the bond market sided with oil; locally the supply build decelerated rather than accelerated, and demand stopped deteriorating on the year even as weekly momentum stayed soft.
- May 2026The daily rate hit 6.75 percent, the highest since July 2025, the national pending recovery reversed within a week of it, and the metro was already running more than a fifth behind the prior year on contracts before the pressure arrived.
- April 2026Rates traced the oil price down and back up inside the month, demand proved responsive to every dip, and the metro's spring volume rebound came with a relisting rate more than twice normal, which was the real story under the seasonal bounce.
Data vintages. Tier A pages quote the Zillow series as pulled during their month; Tier B pages use the August 2026 vintage of the same series (pulled August 2 and August 23, 2026). Zillow revises history, so a figure for the same month can differ between a Tier A page and the Tier B series by a few percent; every figure states its pull date, and each chart on the site uses one vintage and says which.
All twenty-four months →II. The Cycle
Where the macro cycle sits per Providentia, built from frozen snapshots with their date, vintage, and classifier confidence printed.
The Cycle →III. Cycle Reads by Market
A named market mapped through the Providentia framework.
- Residential Intelligence, July 2026A Providentia read of the residential cycle in twenty-six cards: a terms market, buyer leverage in new construction, stress concentrated in FHA borrowers.
- Georgia Residential, July 2026Georgia residential is running ahead of the macro cycle, correcting through terms and time rather than price.
IV. Foundations
The long-form thesis and framework papers behind The Cycle and the market reads. Reserved; nothing is published here yet.