The Record · Atlanta Residential
Atlanta residential, June 2026
a hawkish first meeting for the new Fed chair met a falling oil price and the bond market sided with oil; locally the supply build decelerated rather than accelerated, and demand stopped deteriorating on the year even as weekly momentum stayed soft.
Rates and affordability
The thirty-year fixed averaged 6.49 percent for the week ending June 25, up two basis points, 28 under a year earlier, inside the narrow band of the prior six weeks (Freddie Mac PMMS, June 25, 2026). The daily market had jumped to 6.58 percent after the June 17 FOMC and drifted back to 6.45 to 6.53 percent by June 26 as crude resumed its slide (Mortgage News Daily; Money/U.S. News, June 26). The FOMC held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent by a 12 to 0 vote on June 17, the new chair's first meeting, and flipped the dot plot hawkish: nine of eighteen officials projected a 2026 hike and the year-end PCE projection rose to 3.6 percent (Federal Reserve, June 17). The May CPI, released June 10, accelerated to 4.2 percent on the year with energy responsible for most of the monthly gain and core at 2.9 percent (BLS, June 10). The ten-year fell to 4.37 percent on June 26, a seven-week low (CNBC, June 25 to 26). Applications rose 1.0 percent for the week ending June 19 with the purchase index down 1 percent on the week and 3 percent above a year earlier; refinance was 17 percent above (MBA, June 24). The typical monthly payment reached $2,647, a one-year high (Redfin, four weeks ending June 14).
| Metric | Value | Prior | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed, weekly | 6.49% (wk of 6/25) | 6.47%; 6.77% a year ago | +2 bps; -28 bps YoY | Freddie Mac PMMS, 6/25/26 |
| 30-year, daily | ~6.45% to 6.53% (6/26) | 6.58% (6/18) | eased as oil fell | Mortgage News Daily; Money, 6/26/26 |
| 10-year Treasury | 4.37% (6/26) | 4.46% (6/18) | -9 bps; 7-week low | CNBC, 6/26/26 |
| Federal funds target | 3.50% to 3.75% | held 12 to 0 (6/17) | 9 of 18 project a 2026 hike | Federal Reserve, 6/17/26 |
| CPI (May) | 4.2% YoY | energy-driven; core 2.9% | BLS, 6/10/26 | |
| MBA purchase index (wk ending 6/19) | -1% WoW | -3% | +3% YoY | MBA, 6/24/26 |
| Typical monthly payment | $2,647 | one-year high | Redfin, 6/14/26 |
Freddie Mac; exchange price · 52 weeks ending Jun '26 · Freddie Mac and U.S. Treasury via FRED, pulled October 4, 2026 · Construction is The Record's own.
Prices
The national-record-versus-local-softness split held. The national median sale price stood at a record $403,889 for the four weeks ending June 14, up 2.3 percent on the year (Redfin), and the national existing-home median was $429,300 for May (the national association, early June). The Atlanta metro Home Value Index carried the May 31 value of $382,938, down 0.24 percent on the month and 2.14 percent on the year, with the annual decline narrowing from April's 2.29 percent; the top tier was $637,633, down 1.19 percent (Zillow Research CSVs, May 31 endpoint). Every tracked county remained negative on the year: Cherokee the most defensive at -1.04 percent, then Fulton -2.61, Cobb -2.62, Forsyth -2.74, Gwinnett -2.96, DeKalb -2.99 (same source). The metro median list price was $404,667, up 2.27 percent; the median sale price $377,967 for April, up 2.64 percent (same). Sellers nationally were refusing to cut, which argued against accelerating declines into summer (Altos Research via HousingWire; lens credit).
| Measure | Value | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| National median sale price (4 wks to 6/14) | $403,889 | +2.3% YoY; record | Redfin, 6/14/26 |
| National existing-home median (May) | $429,300 | the national association, 6/2026 | |
| Metro ZHVI, all homes (May 31) | $382,938 | -0.24% MoM; -2.14% YoY | Zillow Research CSV, 5/31 endpoint |
| Metro ZHVI, top tier | $637,633 | -1.19% YoY | same |
| Metro median list (May) | $404,667 | +2.27% YoY | same |
| Metro median sale (Apr) | $377,967 | +2.64% YoY | same |
| Cherokee / Fulton / Cobb / Forsyth / Gwinnett / DeKalb ZHVI YoY | -1.04% / -2.61% / -2.62% / -2.74% / -2.96% / -2.99% | same |
Zillow Research · 24 months ending Jun '26 · Zillow Research, August 2026 vintage (ZHVI and portal series pulled August 2, 2026; days to pending August 23, 2026) · Construction is The Record's own.
Inventory and supply
Metro active inventory was 32,204 at May 31, up 6.16 percent on the month and 2.37 percent on the year; May new listings were 8,990, 3.71 percent below a year earlier (Zillow Research CSVs). Nationally, active inventory grew just 2.2 percent on the year through May 31, down from 31.5 percent growth twelve months earlier, still 10.4 percent below 2019, with 15 states above pre-pandemic levels and Georgia not among them (ResiClub, May 31 update; lens credit). New listings fell to their lowest since February in the week ending June 21 (Redfin). Single-family homes unsold stood near 826,000 in mid-June, back inside the pre-pandemic range (Altos Research, mid-June; lens credit). National months of supply was 4.5 for May (the national association).
| Measure | Value | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metro active inventory (May 31) | 32,204 | +6.16% MoM; +2.37% YoY | Zillow Research CSV |
| Metro new listings (May) | 8,990 | +8.09% MoM; -3.71% YoY | Zillow Research CSV |
| National active inventory YoY (May 31) | +2.2% | down from +31.5% a year earlier; -10.4% vs 2019 | ResiClub, 5/31/26 |
| States above 2019 inventory | 15 (Georgia not) | ResiClub | |
| National new listings (wk ending 6/21) | -1.7% WoW; lowest since February | Redfin | |
| Single-family unsold (mid-June) | ~826,000 | pre-pandemic range | Altos Research |
| National months of supply (May) | 4.5 | the national association |
Zillow Research; ResiClub figures re-expressed · 24 months ending Jun '26 · Zillow Research, August 2026 vintage (ZHVI and portal series pulled August 2, 2026; days to pending August 23, 2026) · Construction is The Record's own.
Buyer and seller activity
The national four-week pending series was down 0.1 percent on the week in mid-June, a third straight slight decline from the May peak, but 4.2 percent above a year earlier (Redfin). The purchase index slipped 1 percent for the week ending June 19 yet held 3 percent above a year earlier (MBA, June 24). Existing-home sales rose 3.2 percent on both the month and the year to a 4.17 million annual rate in May, with the South contributing to the gain (the national association, early June). The consistent read across the series: a market that had stopped deteriorating on the year even as weekly momentum stayed soft. No new metro MLS release landed inside the window; the metro's May days-on-market reading near 55 came from an aggregator and was flagged unverified in the month's research.
| Metric | Value | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| National four-week pending (mid-June) | -0.1% WoW | +4.2% YoY | Redfin, 6/2026 |
| MBA purchase index (wk ending 6/19) | -1% WoW | +3% YoY | MBA, 6/24/26 |
| National existing-home sales (May) | 4.17M SAAR | +3.2% MoM; +3.2% YoY | the national association, 6/2026 |
| National median sale price | $403,889 | +2.3% YoY | Redfin, 6/14/26 |
Redfin · 23 months; series through May 2026 (the June 2026 period had not released) · Zillow Research, August 2026 vintage (ZHVI and portal series pulled August 2, 2026; days to pending August 23, 2026) · Construction is The Record's own.
What it meant for a practice
The weekly survey said rates were up and the bond market said the opposite; the daily index and the ten-year were the better guides. The supply story was maturing, not accelerating, and the narrowing annual decline in metro values was the first quiet evidence of a floor. The month's largest policy event, the housing bill that cleared both chambers, had its signing cancelled on June 23 and would become law without a signature in July (NPR and CNN, June 23).
Source block. Freddie Mac PMMS, 6/25/26. Mortgage News Daily and Money/U.S. News daily readings, 6/26/26. CNBC Treasury coverage, 6/25 to 6/26/26. Federal Reserve FOMC statement and projections, 6/17/26. BLS CPI, 6/10/26. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, 6/24/26. Redfin four-week updates, 6/14 and 6/21/26 (terms: attribution and link). The national association's May existing-home sales release (public summary). Zillow Research CSVs, May 31 endpoint, pulled 6/28/26 (terms: attribution to Zillow Research; confirm wording). ResiClub state inventory update through 5/31/26 (lens credit, Lance Lambert). Altos Research via HousingWire, mid-June (lens credit, Mike Simonsen). NPR and CNN Business, 6/23/26, on the housing bill. The aggregator days-on-market figure is excluded from the tables as unverified.
Educational, not professional advice.